New Poll Finds Trump Leading Biden by 5 Points

1 Jul 2022

BUCK: Clay just sent this to me here. Really interesting. This is Emerson College polling and in a head-to-head, Trump is opening a 5% lead against Biden. There’s a lot of other numbers and data in here. Clay, anything else that jumps out to you? Trump holds 44% support; Biden, 39% support.

CLAY: Yeah. What jumps out at me, Buck, is I’ve never seen Donald Trump with a 5-point lead in any presidential poll nationwide in his entire political career. And you may have seen one. I just haven’t. Obviously, the polling in 2016 wildly underestimated Trump. The same thing happened in 2020 when people expected it to be a total landslide election. And obviously it was not, and I’ve just never seen Trump with a 5-point lead in a national poll ever against Hillary or ever against Biden. So this, to me, is symptomatic of how much Trump is increasing in stature as Biden is decreasing, if that make sense.

BUCK: Yes. Yeah.

CLAY: The best strategy for Trump, almost, is just to lay back and let Biden implode. The other one is — we’ve talked some about the 2024 Republican primary — who’s gonna run? We had Kristi Noem on yesterday, governor of South Dakota, who said she wouldn’t run basically if Trump is running.

BUCK: Right. But VP candidate, yeah. Very possible.

CLAY: In this Emerson poll, Trump gets 55% of Republican presidential support, DeSantis gets 20. Now, this is a nationwide poll, and nationwide primary polling can be a mess. But 55 to 20. Mike Pence 9 points here, Nikki Haley 3; and then you got Cruz, Rubio, Cotton, Pompeo, Scott, Hawley all at around 1. So Trump right now prohibitive favorite in this poll in 2024. Obviously, we don’t even know who exactly is gonna be running. But what jumped out to me primarily here, Buck, is a 5-point lead for Trump over Biden. For people who are in Texas, by the way, a poll also came out today, a CBS poll. Greg Abbott, who we had on earlier this week, governor of Texas, 8-point lead over Beto O’Rourke. I don’t think that race is going to be very close at all.

BUCK: Certainly hope not.

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